Let’s start with a familiar assumption: the more expensive the wine, the better it must be. It’s the logic behind the hesitant splurge on a dinner party bottle, the justifications made in the wine aisle, and the occasional humblebrag over a well-aged Bordeaux. But how true is it, really?

Does Wine Price Equal Its Quality?

Ratings Drive Price

There’s no denying that price and critic ratings often walk hand in hand. In fact, the correlation is well-documented. Economists and wine academics have poured over thousands of bottles and found a statistically significant relationship: as expert ratings go up, so too does the price tag.

In one major study of over 13,000 wines from around the world, each additional point on a 100-point rating scale translated into an average 8% increase in price. That’s a substantial leap for what might seem like a barely perceptible difference in quality. In other studies, critic scores accounted for as much as half of the variation in price.

Ratings don’t just reflect quality—they help create perceived value. Take the example of Robert Parker, whose high scores could catapult a relatively obscure Bordeaux estate into the luxury stratosphere. A 95-point rating was enough to double or even triple bottle prices overnight. It’s not just Parker anymore; today’s wine economy includes a host of critics and scoring systems, all shaping demand and, in turn, market price.

The Blind Tasting Test

Here’s where things get more complicated. When researchers remove price tags and branding from the equation—when they pour wines blind—things start to unravel.

In a number of blind tasting studies with hundreds of casual wine drinkers, participants routinely failed to prefer the more expensive wines. In many cases, they actually enjoyed cheaper bottles more. One particularly well-known experiment found that people correctly identified the more expensive wine only slightly more than 50% of the time—essentially a coin toss.

Even more revealing are studies in neuroeconomics that show our brains are wired to enjoy wine more if we believe it’s expensive. When drinkers believed the wine was more expensive, brain activity in the pleasure centers surged—and they reported it tasted better. The same wine, marked cheaper, elicited a duller response. Their palates didn’t change—their perception did.

This price-placebo effect is powerful and well-documented. For novice drinkers, a higher price can be comforting. It suggests legitimacy, refinement, or at least a lower risk of embarrassment when pouring for others.

Diminishing Returns

Experienced tasters are far better at decoupling price from performance in blind settings. They’re trained to detect structure, balance, complexity, and typicity—the hallmarks of quality. And yet, even for them, critic consensus and the industry echo chamber still create feedback loops that shape pricing.

This all leads to one of the most overlooked dynamics in wine today: the exponential nature of wine pricing. The jump from an 85-point wine to an 87-point wine might result in a moderate price increase. But from 90 to 92? That’s where things get wild. Prices can double or triple over just two or three points. The higher you climb up the score ladder, the more dramatic the pricing becomes—even if the quality gains are subtle at best.

Wines that score above 92 or 95 are often stunning, crafted with obsessive attention to detail, using low-yield fruit, and produced in tiny quantities. These elements cost money. But does that make them more enjoyable for the average wine drinker? Not always.

The good news is that you don’t have to spend a fortune to drink great wine. In fact, the so-called “value zone” for wine quality sits roughly between 87 and 91 points. Wines in this band often deliver serious craftsmanship without the prestige markup.

At the end of the day, wine is deeply personal. Ratings and prices are useful signposts, but they shouldn’t dictate your entire journey. Drink what delights you. Everything else is just window dressing.